It's A Votin' Time

It's on for young and old now. After a lot of 'will she or won't she' speculation over the last couple of weeks, Premier Anna Bligh announced yesterday that Queensland will go to the polls on Saturday 24 March.

While she hasn't made the trip out to Government House yet to formally dissolve Parliament and officially initiate the election (19 February), the Premier said 24 March has been chosen to allow Queenslanders to consider the findings of the Flood Commission report before casting their vote. And this follows the Commission seeking an extension on the deadline to deliver their report to allow for deliberation of new evidence exposed by The Australian newspaper.

A very rare set of circumstances therefore creating an unprecedented process for Queensland to go to the polls. Some are condemning the move saying Bligh should be calling the election a lot earlier but to me it's a case of 'damned if you do and damned if you don't' for the Premier. Waiting until Queensland's biggest inquiry in years is concluded makes sense as I fully agree the electorate deserves to consider its findings before heading to the polls.

Local government reps, led by Brisbane Mayor Tim Quirk, are definitely on the condemnation side of the argument though as the delayed report and delayed State Election means that Council elections will need to be delayed as well until 28 April. While some mayoral campaigns might have been planned around the original council election date of 31 March, this condemnation should be taken with a grain of salt given Quirk is Opposition Leader Campbell Newman's former 2IC.

And for mine, delaying the council elections is far more preferable than delaying the State Election as called for by Quirk and the Local Government Association. It's easily the lessor of two evils in light of the uncertainty and disruption that would have been caused by a delayed State Election into May or June. Bligh would have copped it big time if she'd gone down this path and been open to ridicule for trying to cling on to power for a few more months.

The condemnation from the councils can also be offset by the praise coming from the Chamber of Commerce and Industry and the business sector that has welcomed the election date for ending the speculation and providing some certainty.

Bligh hasn't picked 24 March for purely altruistic motives though. There's plenty of strategy behind it in that it means we'll have an eight week campaign which is designed to provide plenty of time and opportunity for Campbell Newman to make mistakes and produce the odd gaffe.

In the 11 months since he became Leader of the Oppostion (outside the House), he has demonstrated a tendency to be a little thin-skinned and bristle angrily at any disagreement or attack. An inability to properly explain his and the LNP's policies is an achilles heel, especially the 420,000 job commitment just last week that got watered down and dismissed the very next day.

Bligh's calling of an election just a week after the Flood Commission report is released (16 March) may also act as a subtle reminder of her very good performance as Premier during the floods back in January 2011.

The reality though, is that Labor is in line for defeat no matter when the election actually takes place. Despite Newman's laughable attempt to paint himself as the underdog, the polls show the LNP will romp it in and be in Government for the first time since the Borbidge years of 1996-98. The betting agencies also point strongly to a LNP victory with Centrebet having them at $1.11 and Labor at a very long $6.15. That's quite a difference and leaves the LNP as hands-down favourite.

As I've said previously, the mood across the State is that most Queenslanders are lining up with baseball bats for a Labor Government that has had its fair share of crises and bungles and are just itching to cast their vote accordingly.

Personally, I rate Bligh as Premier and feel she's been let down by her Ministry and some other political appointments within the public service. A reluctance to ask for the resignation of some of those Ministers may very well be her downfall though, as I'm still wondering, and surely most people are, how former Minister for Health Paul Lucas kept his job following the great Queensland Health payroll debacle.

While I can definitely understand the mood for change; actually its more a mood to punish; I am somewhat concerned about the LNP team. Notwithstanding the very strange circumstances of Newman being Opposition Leader while having not been elected to Parliament, the thought of some of the current Shadow Ministry being Ministers of Departments containing thousands of employees and having budgets in the billions scares the hell out of me.

One could argue the same thing about one or two of the current Ministers mind you but at least they were being kept in check by a strong Leader and her staff. It's a mute argument though given the likely election result and this will mean a lot of them will not survive the bloodbath and we're going to see a lot of established Labor MPs banished. Quite frankly, some of them deserve that but there's also plenty of 'talent' that will go and perhaps never return to public service again. My former local member, Murray Watt, is an example of this. The likes of Cameron Dick, Kate Jones and even the Deputy Premier, Andrew Fraser, are other examples.

On the Jones v Newman contest in the Ashgrove electorate, the LNP can not afford for Newman to lose so it will devote enormous resources to the seat to try and ensure he becomes Premier. On the flipside, Labor understands it can completely derail the LNP project if Jones can defy the polls and win her local seat. Ashgrove should therefore be a microcosm for the whole election and anyone with an interest in the end result will be folllowing it closely. For instance, will the voting intentions of Queenslanders change if polling starts to show that Newman may lose Ashgrove and the likes of Jeff Seeney or Fiona Simpson could end up being Premier?

The other element to this election, and a very Queensland element at that, is the establishment of Bob Katter's Australian Party. While there's some potential that it can cut into the LNP's core constituency much like One Nation previously did, I don't think it'll be enough to turn the election on its head or anything. There's no doubt they'll pick up a few seats but I think the LNP will win enough seats in their own right to ensure the Australian Party doesn't win the balance of power. And Lord help us if I'm wrong on that count.

Another issue that the election date timing brings up is fixed terms. I'm a great believer in them and support a four-year fixed term as I think the current three-year cycle means a Government is eyeing the next election far too soon into their Government. Taking away the power of a Government to pick and choose the election date also makes sense so that we don't have to put up with the endless speculation and everyone knows when an election and associated campaign is coming.

So yes, it's a votin' time here in Queensland. It's been unprecedented already the way things have gone down so expect a long campaign but with plenty of twists and turns. It's going to be an election that only Queensland could throw up so hang on tight and enjoy the ride.

On that note, what's your feelings on the whole thing? Can Labor pull off another come-from-behind victory or is it already locked up for the LNP? How will you be voting?

Your humble servant again,

EDM.