Well, we’re coming up to the half-way mark of the 2011 AFL Season so I thought I’d revisit my Season Preview and see whether my crystal ball was kosher or kaput at the time.
It’s certainly been an interesting season thus far with the new Gold Coast Suns coming in and creating the BYE as well as the substitution rule having a major impact on games and the state of play. The weekly ins and outs continue to intrigue as well as the fluctuating fortunes of a number of teams.
Anyway, here’s what I had back in late March.
Premiers – Collingwood Magpies
Grand Finalists – Hawthorn Hawks
Wooden Spooners – Gold Coast Suns
Team on the up – Melbourne Demons
Team on the down – St Kilda Saints
Brownlow Medallist – Scott Pendlebury, Collingwood
Coleman Medallist – Lance Franklin, Hawthorn
Rising Star – David Swallow, Gold Coast
Goal of the year – Liam Jurrah, Melbourne
Mark of the year – Liam Jurrah, Melbourne
Biggest story of the year – impacts of new substitution rule
Coach most likely to be sacked – Brett Ratten, Carlton
Despite having a loss, I stand by my call that Collingwood will end up Premiers. That loss was against a fired up Geelong after their smashing in last year’s Prelim Final but the way Collingwood came out the next week and kicked 11 goals in the last quarter says to me they know when and how to go into the next gear; a gear that I don’t think anyone can match. They’ve also improved on last year’s Premiers side with the likes of Cloke, Dawes, Shaw, Thomas, Sidebottom and Davis all playing better than they did last year.
The Hawks as Grand Finalists I’m not so sure about though. I am expecting them to finish Top 4 but think Geelong are now the most likely team to play Collingwood in the GF. I actually thought Geelong might be in decline this year and nearly typed them in when I stipulated a Team on the down. Alas, they’re currently undefeated and seem to have a new lease on life with Chris Scott coming in as new Coach. The Hawks are bit too flighty as well and can be awesome for a half but then diabolical for the next which will get punished once they come up against the likes of the Magpies and Cats.
Wooden Spooners is an interesting one. I’ve been absolutely amazed at the progress of the Gold Coast in coming from a 170 point loss in Round 2 to nearly topping West Coast in Perth last week and with two wins under the belt already. While Brisbane only have two wins as well, I rate them a better side and expect them to finish higher up come the end of the season. That leaves Port as the only challenger for the wooden spoon but I’ll stick with the Suns because I think their young players will probably tired towards the end of the season. Winning two games by this stage is a major achievement though and makes it pretty scary to think of what they will be like in 2-3 years.
I had my team, my beloved team, Melbourne as the Team on the up at the start of the season. While last week’s win against Essendon was fantastic, not even I can say they are the AFL’s on the up team this year. I did say they’ll finish 8-10th and I stand by that. We’ve sat in that ladder range so far this season and can’t imagine that changing (hoping it won’t change downwardly that’s for sure) so can’t be too disappointed.
A couple of weeks ago I would have said Essendon are the most improved team but as it stands today, I’m going to change my tune and nominate West Coast. Massive change in fortunes for them finally getting their senior players back into form and fitness but also an admirable effort in climbing into the Top 6 from the Wooden Spoon just last year.
Again, a couple of weeks ago I would have said St Kilda as the Team on the down was correct. In fact, I would have been sprouting my Nostradamus credentials as last year’s Grand Finalists had only one win by Round 9. Alas, they’ve had a mini-comeback of late and scored two good wins before going down to Collingwood in the GF replay on the weekend. They certainly don’t look like the team from last year and many of their stars are a long way off their best; Goddard and Riewoldt in particular.
So yes, they are on the down but I’d have to say the Team on the biggest decline at this half-way mark must be the Western Bulldogs. Last year’s Prelim Finalists now sit in 13th place with only three wins from ten games and having suffered some major beltings along the way, including a 123 point loss to West Coast.
Trying to pick the Brownlow Medallist at the start of the season is always fraught with danger. I stand by my call of Pendlebury though as he’s played superbly thus far and racked up a number of awards and medals already. However, I also see the merits in the likes of Chris Judd and Marc Murphy from Carlton as well.
Murphy has become an absolute A grader while we already know how much the umpires love the Juddster. He’s had some quiet games but the big games he has had have been beauties and I reckon he’d have to have 4-5 best-on-ground performances already. Nonetheless, I’m sticking with Pendlebury. And crossing my fingers and praying furiously that I end up being right.
Lance Franklin and Jack Riewoldt are currently neck and neck on the goal scoring table so I’m definitely still in the hunt with my prediction that Franklin will win the Coleman Medal. He’s been in scintillating form and you can only imagine what his goal tally would look like if he learnt to kick straight. Plenty of returns of 6.6 or 4.5 for him so the mind boggles as to why he can kick the unkickable but then miss easy ones from out front.
Riewoldt has certainly suffered a decline in goal scoring this year due to the Tigers recent good form and them finding other avenues to goal. He used to kick regular bags of 5 goals or more but its down to about 3-4 each game this year as Richmond’s midfielders are pushing forward more.
The Rising Star is an interesting one. My pick of David Swallow has been good but not great and therefore hasn’t earned himself a nomination just yet. He’s been very consistent but no standout games so there is a question mark over whether he’ll even be nominated by the end of the season.
Based on those who have been nominated thus far, I’d have to say Dyson Heppell from Essendon and Jack Darling from West Coast are the frontrunners. Both started the season on fire but have dropped off a bit in the last couple of weeks so they may be tiring as the season goes on and it might be someone else that ends up with the award. Perhaps a Zac Smith from the Suns who is getting better each week. Or even a Jordie Gysberts from the mighty Dees as he seems to have now cemented a spot in our midfield.
Picking a Goal and Mark of the Year at the beginning of the year was always going to be a long shot. You just never know who is going to pop up with either and it’s just as likely to come from some rookie you’ve never heard than an established star. So in those circumstances, I’ll stick with the Jurrahcane. He’s the reigning Mark of the Year champion and was shortlisted for Goal of the Year last year as well so he has to be one of the best bets.
I’m going to give myself a tick on Biggest Story of the Year as well. The substitution rule has had a massive impact on the state of play and has changed the way coaches coach and selectors select a team. I reckon it’s been a good innovation as its lessened the impact of a team losing an injured layer for the rest of the match and has also meant the really good, premium players are staying on the field for longer. I know not everyone agrees, including many of the players, but that’s just fuelled the debate about it and the inches of type that has been written. So yes, I reckon I’ve been on the money with my prediction of it being the biggest story. Con-tro-versy.
On the flipside, a big cross for me on Coach most likely to be sacked. Carlton have been flying this year and look the goods for a Top 4 spot by the end of the year. That means Ratten has been one of the best coaches this year and I therefore retract me prediction that he’ll be the first sacked. In fact, my own coach in Dean Bailey has been under the pump as much as any of the coaches this year and looked gone a couple of weeks ago.
Alas, the great win against Essendon has probably kept the wolves at bay for a bit and you’d have to say the pressure is now most on the likes of Rodney Eade at the Bulldogs, Ross Lyon at the Saints and Neil Craig at the Crows. You certainly would not have thought that at the start of the year. But only because some of the struggling clubs at the bottom of the ladder such as Brisbane and Port have got club legends in the Coaches Box and are very unlikely to give them the sack this year.
So there you have it. That’s my mid season review of my season preview.
Let’s see how we’re tracking again at the end of the season and whether or not I should put my crystal ball in the Vinnies bin.
Til next time,
EDM.
