Ears Still Ouching But Wondering What's Next?

Wow. And there I was thinking this blog didn't have much of a readership. In quantity I mean. Not quality. You are all lovely people I'm sure. Or that just friends and family read it and took note of any of my musing and rantings. Oh, but how I was wrong obviously.

You see, a mere day after I wrote my last post calling for the Gillard-Rudd stoush to be bought to an end, Kevvie (I can call him that now that I know he reads Nah Seriously) calls a late night press conference to inform us all that he's quitting the Foreign Ministership and returning home for a ballot to decide it for once and for all.

I had no idea he was regular reader of Nah Seriously but he must be hey? To have taken my concerns on board so readily and to have been inspired into such action. I'm humbled folks. Truly humbled. About as humbled as one can be.

Much like Kevvie I guess. Because he has done the truly humble thing by resigning due to 'not having the support of the PM anymore'. Yes, he's done the honourable thing. For the PM. For the party. For the country. Apparently.

One thing though. I can't help this nagging thought that perhaps he hasn't gone down this path for honourable reasons only. Just maybe it's all about him. Still riled by the way his PMship finished up, he's quietly been calculating and strategising on destablising the Government to the point that he now looks like the only one who is electable. Even though it might be him and his other colleagues that have destablished things to the point that the polls are this bad for Labour.

Will the real Kevvie please stand up? Now that we know you read Nah Seriously, maybe just leave a comment at the bottom of this post. You know, with all the details and some honesty about your intentions. My readers would love it I can assure you. Carn, be a man of the Nah Seriously people.

As to Julia, it was always going to be a tough gig being the first female PM of this country and coming into it from a position that looked a little shaky ie. the kniving of a serving and elected PM. Whether she was plotting in the days before Rudd was turfed, I don't really care. Politics is a dirty business and I think people have forgotten just how bad Rudd was going at the time.

I don't just mean the polls. I mean more along the lines of the way his Government was governing. Or lack thereof. Obviously I wasn't privy to the inner workings of the inner sanctrum, but it did appear that his Govt, or more precisely his Office, was paralysed in fear of focus group opinions and unduly worried about the media cycle. They seemed pretty spooked by things they didn't need to and gave up on some important policy principles (ETS) just because the polls went south for a bit.

I therefore think Julia did step in and try to steer the ship on a more appropriate course and she's tried pretty hard at doing that. I'm not naive to think she did it for purely altruistic reasons mind you. Of course she got to be PM as well which must have been the realisation of a lifetime dream.

Alas, I think she's copped undue criticism over the course of her PMship and reckon she has been unfairly treated by some very powerful sections of the media. She has her faults for sure. Most notably not being able to 'sell' policy but also in not acting more strongly to quell internal dissent.

But the life of a minority Govt is not easy and in reality anyone in her position of having to regularly compromise to ensure delivery of legislation/reform would have had similar issues in regards to perceived performance and associated polling. Mind you, she certainly hasn't been helped by some of her own staffers and supporters' actions though. Like some pretty idiotic leaks and statements and the very recent youtube video.

So where does that leave us? Well, it sounds like we'll get some sort of result on Monday. Although I don't think it'll end there I'm afraid. Even if Rudd loses, which the numbers indicate, he'll probably do a Keating and bide his time on the backbench until he challenges again in a few short months. All the while hoping that his fellow MPs forget just how badly he treated them last time he was PM.

One thing that does look very likely though, is that Labour will not be in Govt after the next election. I've been telling the wife since the last election and all the wrangling that went on to get the Independent's support, that whoever got it, and therefore won Govt, that they would not win the next election. A minority Govt just throws up too many curveballs and in the end it almost always looks indecisive and unworkable. So since that very time, it's looked more and more likely that a Coalition Govt will roll on in next and return to the comfy benches.

But will it be Abbott? My god, I hope not. Regardless of my hopes, I don't think he'll be the next Coalition PM anyway. While no doubt he has plenty of supporters, he's too risky for a big section of the electorate and could be considered a liability come election time. He's definitely playing the right game at the moment in just letting Labour destroy itself but in the pursuit of power, I reckon the Coalition will want a safer bet.

Come on down Malcolm Turnbull. Yes, my very limited crystal ball has Turnbull as PM come the next election. I know many within the Coalition don't like him, and he did fail to forsee rumblings against him last time, but I think he is a far safer bet than Abbott as he can actually take votes from Labour and turn a lot of traditional Labour voters who are sick of the current leadership game and internal struggles. It would be a mighty comeback for the man, and some might ask what I have been smoking, but surely the Coalition and its supporters see a move to the centre being the best bet rather than any further move to the right under Abbott.

So you read it here first folks. Turnbull to be PM. Well actually, there's quite a few people who've been saying the same so I can't claim its me and my crystal ball only. In fact, Centrebet has Turnbull at shorter odds of being PM than Abbott so there must be some very wise people at Centrebet for agreeing so wholeheartedly with me. 

But anyway, it's a real sausage factory at the moment in Federal politics and who knows what the coming days bring, let alone coming months and years. The noise is still ouching my ears but I find myself drawn to it all nonetheless. I don't want to. I'd rather just enjoy my last few weeks here in paradise on the Sunny Coast. But hey, what's a poor boy to do?

EDM.