Yasi, A Game-Changer

Jaysus! The world has gone mad. Well, our little corner of it here in Queensland anyway.

I’ve been following Cyclone Yasi during the day with it due to hit between Cardwell and Innisfail in a mere matter of a few hours (10pm). The day began with the news that it had been upgraded to Category 5 overnight before an early meeting at work where we were told some pretty scary stuff about what’s likely to occur over the next 36 hours.

The sheer size of Yasi is unbelievable. Plenty of radar images are going around the interweb comparing it with Larry (2006) and Tracey (1974) as well as stimulated images of how it would look if it was over the continental USA or Europe. Based on those, you can certainly see why Yasi is being billed as the most powerful cyclone to hit Australia since settlement.

500km of coastline to be affected. Record 300km/h winds. Waves as high as 12m. Storm surge of 6.5m. And a metre of rain in 24 hours in some areas. That’s just some of the stats that will see all sorts of weather records broken if current predications are fulfilled.

Not to mention the financial cost which could very much be the most expensive natural disaster Australia has seen. A record currently held by the recent floods in southern and central Queensland which will likely be broken in a matter of a few weeks.

What is going on?

One of biggest stats that has hit me is the fact Yasi will still be considered a cyclone by the time its reaches Mt Isa, 1000km away. Usually when a cyclone hits the coast, it almost immediately begins to downgrade and become merely a tropical low that brings a fair bit of rain but not much else in terms of winds, etc.

But Yasi is due to still be a Category 3 cyclone with all its damaging winds and torrential rain when it hits Georgetown 450km inland and then still be a Category 1 when it hits the Isa, some 24 hours after it first crossed the coast. That is massive and does not bode well for all the mines out west and all the prime agricultural land between them and the coast.

Another thing that really hit me was the warning that went out about earlier today warning residents to not panic if your roof is lifted off. “Yeah, no worries. I’ll just make myself a cuppa while my new permanent skylight takes shape. Oh, there’s no power. Probably because the walls just went flying down the street as well.”

Nah seriously, that warning also came with the advice that it was better to stay in your house, preferably the bathroom, and just get wet rather than trying to move about and find other shelter. Particularly important during the eye of the storm which is expected to last over an hour before even heavier winds start up as Yasi continues on her merry-way.

Truly scary stuff. Thoughts and prayers therefore with all those in north Queensland for the coming 24 hours.

The politics at play that come out of this are going to be very interesting also. Before Xmas, some work colleagues and I were discussing the Bligh Government electoral prospects at the time. Everyone was pretty dismissive of those prospects but a couple of comments were made that a big natural disaster or a change in leadership, Government or Opposition, could change everything.

Well, the natural disaster thing has certainly come to fruition. In many ways, the flooding was the complete game-changer that we were talking about. In fact, it has almost been a game-changer for Federal politics as well.

But there’s now every likelihood that Yasi will be another complete game-changer that turns everything on its head once again. Because the State Government is going to be massively impacted over the coming weeks with every normal process or system in place being in disarray as the Premier and a host of senior bosses bunker down in the Emergency Centre and coordinate the recovery.

Added to that is the fact the Commission of Inquiry into the floods is due to commence next week and the establishment of the Reconstruction Authority, which will surely be expanded to include north Queensland after Yasi, is soon to be debated in Parliament.

The Opposition will have to be very careful in how it makes its arguments over the coming weeks as well. Just as Abbott has been accused of using the flooding to make cheap political points, Langbroek could be susceptible to the same accusations if he goes too negative and opposes every move the Government makes.

So all this again, only a fortnight after the floods occurred and the total chaos that they caused. Not to mention a Budget already in deficit that is due in May and an election that has to be called within the next twelve months.

Yep, a complete game-changer indeed. As the old Chinese curse goes, “may you live in interesting times”.

EDM.